Of Goats and Porsches: A Monty Hall Paradox Simulator

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4 Responses to “Of Goats and Porsches: A Monty Hall Paradox Simulator”

  1. Simon Kelsey Says:

    Funny, I was only discussing this with someone the other day. The way I pursuaded them that switching was better was to scale the whole thing up. If you had a million doors and you pick one, and 999,998 others are revealed to be “goats”, leaving only yours and one other, then clearly you would switch. Nice shell script though, you really must have too much time on your hands (although I did write a korn shell script to solve those tricky sudoku puzzles – OK, I admit it, I’m a geek at heart.)

  2. Mark Says:

    We learned this in my statistics class. The rationale is that whether or not your first choice is actually a goat, Monte will always reveal another goat. If he didn’t know, you would have a 1/3 chance of getting it right. But because he does know, if you switch you now have a 1/2 chance. If you don’t switch you still have a 1/3 chance.

  3. Uri Kalish Says:

    I’ve got my own version:
    http://urikalish.blogspot.com/2007/02/vertigo-and-lion-intuition-can-be.html

  4. steveyoung Says:

    I guess every tries this when they start scripting ;-)

    My version is here http://members.chello.at/stephen.joung/monte.html

    Steve.

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